Just out today (3/21) a new long-range forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting nearly all U.S. states are leaning toward warmer-than-average weather this spring.
The forecast speaks in terms of probabilities—not certainties—and we could still see some cooler, rainy weather but the highest chances of experiencing unseasonably warm temperatures are found in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes between April and June.
If I'm reading the color graphs correctly, the probability of higher-than- average temperatures for our region is between 60-70%. The probability of lower-than-average precipitation is somewhere between 35-50%.
NOAA meteorologists are expecting El Niño to be ending sometime between now and June. Once El Niño ends, we’ll probably be in a “neutral” situation for a period of time before La Niña takes over in the Fall.
A couple of recent Methow Valley News articles have highlighted concerns over our low snowpack. I try to keep track of the trend toward higher low temperatures. It seems to me, climate change is something we have to at least acknowledge and plan for even while we allow ourselves the opportunity to enjoy some nice days.